Cox Automotive predicts that U.S. new vehicle sales for August will remain stable when adjusted for seasonality, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) expected to reach 15.4 million units. This is a slight increase from last August's 15.3 million units but a decrease from July's strong pace of 15.8 million units. The boost in July's sales was partly due to a recovery from a dealership software disruption in late June.

August's sales volume is projected to increase by over 8% year-over-year and rise by 12% from July, potentially making it the best sales month of the year. The increase is driven by several factors: August has 28 selling days—three more than July and one more than last year—and features five weekends compared to four last year.

Inventory levels of new vehicles are expected to stabilize following the software issues in June and the recovery in July. The introduction of model year 2025 vehicles has led to over 40% of dealer inventories consisting of these new models. To clear out existing stock and boost sales, automakers are offering various incentives, such as 0% financing and up to $10,000 in bonuses for 2024 models.

Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive, mentioned that August’s new-vehicle sales pace is expected to range between 15 to 16 million units, aligning with monthly sales trends over the past two years. The Labor Day period, known for significant sales promotions, is expected to further increase sales volume this year.