According to Forrester's latest “U.S. Online Retail Forecast, 2024-2029,” Amazon and Walmart are set to capture a significant share of the U.S. retail market in the coming years. If current trends continue, these retail giants will account for 25% of total retail sales and 67% of online retail sales by 2029, with their combined retail sales reaching $1.5 trillion and online sales hitting $1.1 trillion.

Key findings include:

U.S. total retail sales will rise to $6.0 trillion by 2029, with online retail sales reaching $1.8 trillion.

Online retail penetration will increase to 29% from 23% in 2024.

Amazon alone generated more e-commerce sales than the combined total of all U.S. omnichannel retailers in 2023.

Online retail sales are projected to grow at an annual rate of 8.4%, from $1.2 trillion in 2024 to $1.8 trillion in 2029.

Click-and-collect sales will reach $196 billion, capturing 29% of e-commerce sales by 2029.

Non-durable goods, such as clothing and food, are expected to see significant online growth, with penetration for categories like clothing, footwear, and toys exceeding 50% by 2029.