Economic Indicators:

U.S. Industrial Production: Rose by 1.6% y/y in June, the strongest increase since November 2022. The ADS Business Conditions Index suggests improved economic growth for Q3 2024.

Consumer Sentiment: Declined for the third consecutive month, down over 14% since March 2024, indicating slower consumer spending.

Oil Market:

Crude Oil Inventories: Fell by 1.8 mb/d in June and 0.3 mb/d in July, with domestic stocks decreasing by 20.5 million barrels recently. Despite high production levels, prices saw a slight decline.

Natural Gas: Prices dropped by 7.5% w/w to $2.10 per million Btu, with inventories growing and futures prices for December higher compared to August.

Agriculture and Energy:

Oil and Natural Gas in Agriculture: The consumption of oil and natural gas in agriculture has been steadily rising, underpinning global food supply and productivity.

Texas Oil and Gas:

Production: Texas crude oil production held strong at 5.6 mb/d in June, with Texas accounting for 42.8% of U.S. production.

Natural Gas: Marked by strong production but a slight decrease in marketed output to 32.2 bcf/d.

Market Trends:

Bond Premiums: The premium for low-credit quality bonds decreased, while Fed Funds futures rates remained stable.

Electricity: ERCOT's generation and maximum load showed some variability, with rising electricity prices observed in Texas compared to neighboring states.

Overall: The oil market is tightening with decreasing inventories and a mixed picture in natural gas prices. Economic growth shows positive signs but consumer sentiment is weakening, potentially affecting future spending.

In the first half of 2024, BMW Group has emerged as a leader in global automotive sales, significantly outstripping competitors Mercedes and Audi across all drive systems. BMW’s dominance is particularly evident in the electric vehicle sector, where it has sold 179,557 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and an additional 11,065 MINIs. Even excluding MINI, BMW’s electric sales surpass the combined totals of Mercedes and Audi, despite Mercedes' figures including some from the Smart brand.

Mercedes has seen a 17 percent decline in electric vehicle sales, while Audi reported a modest 1.3 percent increase. In contrast, BMW's electric vehicle sales surged by 34.1 percent, reinforcing its position as a market leader for 2024.

Struggles for Mercedes and Audi are also apparent in individual model lines. Audi’s Q8 e-tron faces potential production shutdown, and Mercedes’ EQC has been largely overlooked since production ceased over a year ago.

Looking forward, BMW expects continued success with upcoming models including the BMW i5 Touring (G61) and the refreshed BMW i4 (G26 LCI), along with future releases like the BMW iX3 (NA5) and new BMW i3 (NA0) set for 2025 and 2026.

The UK, alongside 90 other countries, has successfully concluded negotiations for the E-Commerce Joint Initiative at the World Trade Organization (WTO), establishing a set of rules aimed at enhancing global digital trade. This agreement is set to permanently eliminate customs duties on digital content, lower costs for UK businesses, and protect UK consumers from online fraud.

Key Elements of the Agreement:

Digitalisation of Customs Processes 📄➡️💻:

The agreement mandates the digitalisation of customs documents and processes, significantly reducing the need for physical forms and manual procedures at borders. This move is expected to make trade operations faster, cheaper, and more efficient 💨💸.

Recognition of E-Documents and E-Signatures ✍️💻:

Signatories will recognize electronic documents and signatures, minimizing the need for businesses to handle physical paperwork and post contracts worldwide 🌐📬.

Economic Impact 💷📊:

Full adoption of digital customs systems could increase UK GDP by up to £24.2 billion based on 2023 figures, with even partial implementation providing substantial economic benefits 💹.

Fraud Prevention 🛡️⚠️:

The agreement includes legal safeguards against online fraud and misleading product claims, aiming to protect consumers and businesses 🛍️🔒.

Statements from Key Figures:

Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds: Highlighted the significance of the agreement in cutting costs for businesses and fostering economic growth 🌱, emphasizing the UK's role as a proactive trading nation 🇬🇧.

Science Secretary Peter Kyle: Stressed the dual benefits of enhancing technological safety for consumers 🛡️ and driving economic growth through trade digitalisation 🚀.

Chris Southworth, Secretary General, International Chambers of Commerce UK: Applauded the agreement for establishing a unified set of rules, which will drive innovation and streamline global trade processes 🌐.

Matt Hammerstein, Head of Barclays UK Corporate Bank: Welcomed the initiative for its potential to simplify trade for businesses of all sizes and enhance the competitiveness of UK exports 📦.

Next Steps 🔜:

The agreement now awaits incorporation into the WTO legal framework, after which UK ratification will proceed ✅. This initiative aligns with the UK government's commitment to modernize global trade rules and strengthen international cooperation, ensuring benefits for both developed and developing countries 🌍🤝.

Implications for UK Businesses 💼:

For UK financial services providers and other businesses, the shift to electronic documents and signatures will reduce the reliance on paper contracts and manual authentication, making international trade more streamlined and efficient 🌐📄.

Overall, the E-Commerce Joint Initiative represents a significant step forward in modernizing global trade practices, fostering economic growth 📈, and ensuring a secure digital trading environment 🔒.

Germany is stepping up its efforts to decarbonize its economy with a new hydrogen import strategy aimed at securing a sustainable and diversified supply of hydrogen and its derivatives. Here’s a quick rundown:

Key Elements of the Strategy

Germany anticipates a hydrogen demand of 95-130 TWh by 2030, with expectations for this demand to increase significantly by 2045. To meet these needs, 50-70% of the hydrogen will need to be imported. The strategy plans for a "core network" by 2032, connecting production, consumption, storage, and import points. Infrastructure expansion includes import ships, pipelines, and H2-ready LNG terminals. Both green hydrogen (renewable) and blue hydrogen (fossil with carbon capture) will be used, targeting sectors like steel, basic materials, petrochemicals, mobility, logistics, and power plants.

Industry Response

The VDI (Association of German Engineers) emphasized the need for a quick and flexible start and a standardized certification system. The BDEW (Energy Industry Association) supported the strategy but called for clear prioritization and secure demand. Zukunft Gas (Lobby Group) criticized the lack of demand growth indicators and called for a global certification system.

Environmental Concerns

Environmental Action Germany (DUH) criticized the inclusion of blue hydrogen, advocating for a focus on green hydrogen only. Greenpeace opposed the use of fossil-based hydrogen, stressing the need for imports from surplus renewable energy only.

Germany's new strategy marks a significant step towards a hydrogen-powered future, but it faces both industrial support and environmental scrutiny.